Within an hour after the Florida Legislature
passed its tax bill Thursday evening, Mark
Zilbert went to work. The South Beach real
estate broker sent an e-mail blast to 50,000
potential buyers with the tax changes -- and
condominiums for sale.
Like most in the
housing industry, Zilbert had been eagerly
waiting for something -- anything -- to
inject new life into a frozen real estate
market.
The Legislature's tax rollback could spur
a little action by giving home shoppers a
bit more money and a psychological boost.
But the waiting is far from over: Many
buyers are likely to sit on the sidelines
until voters decide whether to approve a big
tax exemption in January.
''What buyer and seller are starving to
see is something being done about taxes,''
said Zilbert, who said he had 300 e-mail
responses by Friday morning. ``Not everyone
is convinced they will see big changes. Yet
this is finally being dealt with, and for
many, that is all it takes.''
The reforms passed Thursday may prompt
some buyers to think harder about taking the
plunge.
For more than a year, Adam Lubkin, 38, a
renter in Miami, has considered buying a
home in Fort Lauderdale to be closer to his
parents. He waited during the tax debate in
Tallahassee and is still not sure, but he's
more positive than before.
''I think it will have to shake out a
little bit,'' said Lubkin, who is in real
estate development. ``But did Thursday's
decision move me in the direction to buy a
house? Absolutely.''
Turning renters into buyers would be
significant, said Ronald Shuffield,
president of Esslinger-Wooten-Maxwell
Realtors, which sells homes in Miami-Dade
and Broward counties. He said that while
sales have gone down, rentals through the
multiple-listing service have actually
increased 29 percent over the past year in
Miami-Dade.
''That says to me we have a lot of people
still here,'' Shuffield said.
WAIT AND SEE
However, the wait-and-see attitude among
some buyers is likely to continue until
January, when voters decide whether to
approve a system that offers the choice
between Save Our Homes caps or a new
super-sized tax exemption for homeowners.
''The real bad slump in the home resale
market and the new home market will likely
remain flat through the end of the year,''
said real estate analyst Jack Winston of
Goodkin Consulting in Miami.
If the proposal passes in January, the
super-sized tax exemption may reduce the
sticker shock that prompted many prospective
buyers to walk away after tallying up the
home price, insurance costs and taxes. The
exemption of 75 percent on the first
$200,000 and 15 percent on the next $300,000
may give first-time home buyers a better
chance to get into the market. It also could
budge some homeowners who were reluctant to
move up before because of the prospect of a
significantly higher tax bill.
But even if voters say yes in January,
it's unclear how far the changes to the
market will go.
Peter Zalewski, a real estate advisor in
Bal Harbour who offers buyers distressed
property, said the super-sized exemption may
bring a burst of activity, but not for long.
''Ultimately, there are too many units
and not enough buyers, and not even a tax
break will change that,'' he said.
The broader market still faces a host of
problems. There's an affordability gap, with
many buyers still priced out. Banks are
tightening lending standards after giving
out mortgages too freely. Insurance rates
remain high for many homeowners.
And there is still a mountain of homes on
the market looking for a buyer. In the past
year, the number of homes listed for sale in
Miami-Dade and Broward counties increased
from 50,000 to more than 75,000.
Meanwhile, the vacation- and second-home
sector -- a big part of South Florida's
housing market -- were largely left out of
the tax breaks passed by the Legislature.
Florida is the largest vacation home market
in the country, according to the U.S.
Census.
NOT ENOUGH
Some say the reform package, even if the
January vote passes, doesn't go far enough.
''It's not enough to impact our housing
market,'' said Silvio Cardoso, president of
the Builders Association of South Florida,
who favored a rollback in property taxes to
2001 levels. ``I think the market will
continue to be very dead for a while.''
But the industry is keeping its fingers
crossed.
''This is a good start,'' said Gus Rubio,
who heads real estate brokerage Coldwell
Banker in Miami-Dade. ``We'll see what
happens.''