In downtown, from Brickell Avenue north to the
Edgewater neighborhood, up the Miami River and down
historic Coral Way, great chunks of Old Miami are
fast disappearing in a cloud of dust. In its place,
the New Miami -- a dense, steel-and-glass forest of
condo towers -- is rising from the rubble.
The scope, scale and speed of the transformation
are breathtaking.
More than 114 major projects, most of them
high-rise condos, are under construction or in the
planning stages in the urban core along Biscayne
Bay.
Citywide, developers are proposing more than
61,000 new condominium units -- eight times the
number built during the past decade.
The projects encompass the tallest skyscraper in
Florida, a 74-story spire higher than any
residential building south of Manhattan, almost four
million square feet of new retail space (nearly as
much as two Aventura Malls) and parking for more
than 100,000 cars.
''You have a wave of development underway here in
Miami that is unprecedented, bigger than anything,
bigger than Hong Kong in the boom years of
development,'' said former Portland, Ore.,
councilman Charles Hales, a transportation
consultant working on a plan for a Miami streetcar
line.
Not since the post-World War II housing boom that
multiplied Miami-Dade County's population fivefold,
to more than one million people, has the region
experienced anything comparable. But that took
almost 20 years.
''We are building an instant city; what should
take 15 years will take three,'' said Michael
Cannon, a Miami real-estate analyst.
The boom struck suddenly, unexpectedly, first a
trickle of projects, then a torrent. Cash has poured
in from Latin America, New York and, increasingly,
Europe, the result of converging market forces --
slashed interest rates, a cheap dollar -- and a
worldwide infatuation with Miami among the chic and
moneyed.
It all amounts to a multibillion-dollar gamble,
outdoing in risk and bravado the 1920s boom that
made Miami a modern city: That given waterfront
location, a sunny climate and a hip, international
culture, intensive downtown residential development
can catapult Miami into the first rank of world
cities.
Elected officials, in particular Miami Mayor
Manny Diaz and Miami Commissioner Johnny Winton, are
counting on the boom to reverse downtown's long
decline, to turn its seedy blocks and outlying
neighborhoods into a scintillating, working urban
hub with a vibrant street life.
''Just five years ago we were broke; we had zero
development,'' Winton said. ``I'm going to bet you
that when we're done -- I don't know when that will
be -- historians will identify this as the most
significant and rapid transformation of an American
city.''
What precisely will the boom deliver? It's too
soon to tell, experts say.
But this convulsion of development is already
remaking not just Miami's skyline, but its streets
and neighborhoods and likely its population, too.
If it stays on track, the boom promises a
fundamentally different Miami -- more urban and
congested, but also more cosmopolitan and, given the
high prices the condos command, probably wealthier.
It also raises serious concerns. In the absence
of a ready plan, how will the city cope with
thousands of expected new residents and the traffic
they will generate, given antiquated infrastructure,
limited public transit and a shortage of parks and
open space? Will Miami residents, among the nation's
poorest urban dwellers, be displaced or priced out
of new housing?
That is, if the planned condos actually get
built, sold and occupied.
As the boom takes on the feel of a gold rush,
real estate analysts, bankers and even some
developers fear it's a mirage, a bubble fueled by
speculators looking to resell condo units for a
quick profit, and not by true buyer demand.
If developers build too much, and speculators
can't find buyers for resale, the boom could bust,
leaving Miami littered with vacant and bankrupted
buildings or, worse, unfinished towers and bare
lots.
SIGNS OF FUROR
For now, though, signs of the furor are
everywhere.
Sales centers for multimillion-dollar condos that
tout the merits of high-rise living sprout up across
the city. Brokers push Miami condos in farflung
locales, from Caracas and Bogot� to New York and
France's Cte d'Azur. Lavish condo parties are thrown
by developers several times a week, and
advertisements for the high-rises fill the pages of
local magazines and newspapers, including The
Herald.
Downtown Miami is a thicket of construction
cranes. Much of the landward side of Biscayne
Boulevard has been razed, and the footings and
columns of what will soon be a wall of six colossal
condos, each more than 50 stories, are becoming
visible.
''Where else are you near the water, 10 minutes
from Miami Beach, 15 minutes from the airport and
have access to public transportation?'' said Daniel
Kodsi, chief executive of Boca Raton-based Royal
Palm Communities, which plans a high-rise condo
called Paramount Park across from AmericanAirlines
Arena.
There is so much building that developers are
struggling to find qualified contractors and
subcontractors.
Sales and resales in the mid-six figures, and
well beyond, have become commonplace. Towers of 300
units sell out in a day, with buyers coming in the
main not from Miami, but from other parts of the
country and the world.
''Miami, New York and Los Angeles have become the
three cities in the U.S. where people want to be,''
said Joe Cayre, chairman of Midtown Group, which is
building eight condo towers on the site of the old
Florida East Coast Railroad yards in Wynwood.
They are people like Sal Loduca, who plans to
leave Manhattan and his family's Long Island food
business to open a brick-oven pizzeria at Cayre's
Midtown Miami.
''Everyone's making the move to Miami. How could
you not? It's a great opportunity. Miami's full of
life,'' Loduca said.
CRITICAL COMBUSTION
Real estate broker Philip Spiegelman calls the
confluence of factors propelling this boom a
``critical combustion.''
Among them:
� Across the country,
young people and so-called ''empty-nesters'' have
been returning to urban centers, in part because of
long, wearing commutes from outlying suburbs. At the
same time, a dwindling supply of easily developable
land in western Miami-Dade and Broward counties has
prompted developers to look eastward.
� A shortage of
waterfront property elsewhere led developers to
Miami's acres and acres of vacant bayfront land.
� Low interest rates
have fueled record home-buying, while aging baby
boomers are increasingly seeking second homes in
sunny or exotic places.
� A cleaner local
government has made Miami attractive to lenders and
investors who once thought the city too risky,
unsafe or corrupt.
� The weak dollar has
made Miami an alluring bargain for Europeans and
Latin Americans. And compared to other urban centers
like New York City, Miami remains cheap.
Then there is the other factor, anecdotal and
unquantifiable: the speculator.
''As much as 85 percent of all condominium sales
in [downtown Miami] are accounted for by investors
and speculators,'' housing analysts at investment
firm Raymond James warned in a March report.
Banks have started to back off lending on condo
projects, or have instituted new rules to avoid
giving mortgages to investors.
Spiegelman sold the condo units in the Marina
Blue condo going up on Biscayne Boulevard.
''One hundred percent of the buyers were
investors and speculators,'' he said. ``Anyone who
tells you their projects are different are deluding
themselves.''
ZONING-CODE OVERHAUL
The pace of development is so furious that it has
overtaken the city's planning efforts.
Only now is the city getting around to a
long-promised overhaul of its outdated zoning code,
a complete rewrite meant to ensure that new
development produces lively, pedestrian-friendly
streetscapes and respects open spaces and
established neighborhoods, while weaving it all
together into a cogent urban fabric. The rewrite,
dubbed Miami 21, will be phased in over two years.
Yet more than 100 large-scale projects, most of
them in and around downtown, have already been
approved or are under construction.
Public-transit improvements like Metrorail
extensions, a light-rail line to Miami Beach and the
contemplated city streetcar are years away, raising
fears of gridlock.
Quipped Cannon, the real estate analyst: ``Maybe
we need to give every buyer of a condo in the urban
core a Segway.''
There are other worries.
Some skeptics, noting the high condo prices and
the out-of-town provenance of buyers, fear that
instead of the diverse, working 24-hour downtown
that city leaders envision, the boom will instead
create a seasonal playground for the rich, a Monte
Carlo on Biscayne Bay.
''I bet those buildings are going to be empty a
lot of the time,'' said Joel Kotkin, an urban
historian and consultant who has written about the
rise of what he calls ''ephemeral cities'' -- places
like San Francisco, Berlin and parts of New York
that increasingly cater to the rich, the childless
young and tourists.
''Maybe this is Miami's karma, to be this kind of
place, a temporary, hip, cool, nomadic population
serviced by a poor population,'' said Kotkin, author
of The City: A Global History. But, he added:
``History shows a city has to maintain some sense of
a middle-class character if it wants to thrive.''
MISSING LINK
Yet there's relatively little in the new downtown
priced for working families. ''The missing link here
is in creating housing that the middle class can
afford,'' said Rafael Kapustin, a longtime downtown
property owner who pioneered the conversion of old
downtown offices and hotels into modestly priced
condos and apartments.
In partnership with a big developer, the Related
Group, Kapustin developed two affordable loft
condos, with units averaging around $150,000, now
under construction in the inner core of downtown.
But their Loft II project may be the last of its
kind because of the surging cost of land and
construction, he said.
City leaders are sanguine. They say it will take
years for all the planned condos to be built and
occupied, allowing time to absorb new residents,
build public amenities and improve transit.
While few city residents can afford waterfront
condos, thousands of moderately priced condos and
rental apartments are being built by private
developers in adjacent Overtown and neighborhoods
like Little Havana and Allapattah, many with direct
city subsidies, according to a recent report from
Miami Mayor Diaz.
SELF-REINFORCING CYCLE
And gradually, as new residents move into
downtown, businesses, shops, restaurants,
neighborhood retailers and services will follow,
said Neisen Kasdin, a land-use lawyer and former
Miami Beach mayor.
''It becomes a self-reinforcing cycle,'' Kasdin
said. ``Yes, there will be a large segment of
temporary residents, but as the city continues to
grow as an international business city, it leads to
the continued growth of a permanent community.''
Meanwhile, the city has instituted measures that
strengthen the planners' hand in shaping an
attractive, livable downtown: hiding parking garages
inside buildings; lining sidewalks with shops,
offices, dwellings and restaurants; and keeping
garage and service entrances off Biscayne Boulevard
and other main arteries.
'We used to sit here and say, `Someday,' '' said
Miami Planning Director Ana Gelabert-S�nchez,
alluding to the city's long-frustrated hopes for a
downtown revival. ``Well, someday is here.''
Herald staff writer Larry Lebowitz contributed
to this report.
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